Three races are now in the books and the teams of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series just passed the first big test of the season – a race on an intermediate racetrack.
With a new aero package this year, teams needed to hit this type of track to see where they stood up, performance wise. While the new aero rules are designed to help create more passing opportunities in race traffic, Sunday’s race showed once again that clean air was the way to go.
On numerous occasions last Sunday, when different teams got out to the lead they could maintain it for long a period of time. Yet once they got in traffic, forward progress often came to a crashing halt.
Sunday’s race showed that NASCAR and the race teams still need to tweak this new rules package if they want to see more passing on the downforce tracks. But again, this was the first race on an intermediate racetrack. Time on the track should fix some of these early bugs.
Now, teams won’t have to worry about downforce at this week’s racetrack – Bristol Motor Speedway. This half-mile “Coliseum” of motorsports will produce lots of side-by-side, fender-bending, temper-raising moments.
And as NASCAR heads to its first short track of the season, let’s see who has and lacks momentum in this week’s Power Rankings:
1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — +/-0
If he had one more once of fuel, Earnhardt, Jr. would have had a real kick-start to the season, pun intended. Despite the bitter defeat, No.88 crew still has to be very pleased with their performance on Sunday. Earnhardt, Jr. led 53 laps and ran in the top 5 for most of the race en route to a 2nd place finish. With that finish, Earnhardt, Jr. become the first driver since Jimmie Johnson in 2006 to start the season with three-straight top 2 finishes. We all know how that season played out for Johnson.
At Bristol: Bristol has always been a strong track for Earnhardt. In 28 starts, Earnhardt has one win, seven top 5s and 14 top 10s with an average finish of 11.5. He is also bringing the same chassis that finished 2nd at Dover – Bristol’s sister track – last year. Expect the momentum to carry on for Earnhardt and crew this weekend.
2. Brad Keselowski — +2
Other than Earnhardt, there hasn’t been a hotter driver starting 2014 than Keselowski. In the first three races of this season, Keselowski has finished 3rd, 3rd and 1st – a sensational start for the 2012 champion. With the win last weekend, Keselowski won’t have to sweat out making or missing the Chase like last year. Now a virtual lock into NASCAR’s postseason, expect crew chief Paul Wolfe – known as one of the biggest gamblers in the garage – to take bigger risks for wins throughout the season.
At Bristol: Bristol has been feast or famine for Keselowski. In eight starts, BK has two wins, three top 5s and three top 10s with an average finish of 14.4. But he has also recorded two 30th place results in his last three races at the track. Which Keselowski will we see at Bristol?
3. Jimmie Johnson — -1
The defending champion is another team that is off to a great start. In three races, Johnson has finishes of 5th, 6th and 6th – pretty sporty right out of the gate. Last Sunday, Johnson led 34 laps and ran in the top 5 for most of the afternoon until pit strategy and a poor restart caused Johnson to rally from 11th to 6th in the final 30 laps. Still, not a bad way to start for 6-time.
At Bristol: Like Keselowski, Bristol has been a feast or famine track for Johnson. In 24 starts, Johnson has one win, seven top 5s and 13 top 10s with an average finish of 15.3. He didn’t fair too well in the two races last year with finishes of 22nd and 36th, respectively. Let’s see if Johnson can turn that around this weekend.
4. Jeff Gordon — -1
Like his teammates, 4-time is off to a terrific start – his best since 2007. After finishing in the top 5 in the first two races, Gordon backed up those performances with a solid 9th at Las Vegas. After struggling with the handling the last two times at the track, Gordon ran in the top 10 almost all race and was one of the better cars on the long run. Not a bad day considering Vegas is one of Gordon’s “worst tracks right now.” In his illustrious cup career, Gordon has never started the season with four-straight top 10s. Expect that to change this weekend.
At Bristol: Few active drivers have been better than Gordon at Bristol. In 42 starts, Gordon has five wins, 16 top 5s and 23 top 10s with an average finish of 12.3. He led 66 laps in last year’s spring race at Bristol before blowing a right front tire and crashing with 111 laps to go while leading. He also had a top 5 car in the August race before getting shuffled to 7th late in the going. Expect Gordon to be a factor for the win this weekend.
5. Joey Logano — +1
For a time, Logano looked like he had a stout piece last weekend. Then Logano was put in traffic through pit strategy and he couldn’t go anywhere for about 100 laps. After running between 11th and 15th in the mid stages of the Kobalt 400, Logano and crew used some good pit strategy to enter the top 10 in the last 40 laps and rally to 4th at the finish. The finish was Logano’s second-straight 4th place result in the young season which moved him up to 4th in points. “Sliced Bread” is off to the best start of his career.
At Bristol: Bristol has not been too good for Logano. In 10 starts, Logano has no wins, one top 5 and two top 10s with an average finish of 19.9. Last year, Logano had a car capable of winning until he and Denny Hamlin tangled with less than 200 laps to go. If he avoids trouble this time around, expect Logano to be a player this weekend.
6. Kevin Harvick — -1
For a while, Harvick looked like the car to beat last Sunday. After leading 23 laps in the middle portions of the race, Harvick fell out of contention when the car’s left front wheel hub locked up while he was running 2nd. The mechanical problem sent Harvick to the garage where he would lose 30 laps before returning to the race and finishing in 41st place. Will the lack of momentum carry over to Bristol? We shall see.
At Bristol: Harvick has had decent success at Bristol throughout his career. In 26 starts, Harvick has one win, nine top 5s and 12 top 10s with an average finish 13.4. However, Harvick has failed to record a top 10 at “Thunder Valley” in his last five starts, with his best finish being 11th. With a new team this time, let’s see if Harvick turn that around.
7. Matt Kenseth — +2
While his start to the season hasn’t been slow, the 2013 runner up has not shown the brute speed that he had last year. Yes, Kenseth did finish 10th last Sunday, but he was never a factor for the win. In fact, Kenseth barely had a top 10 car for most of the race, and considering he was the defending winner, Sunday’s performance was a let down.
At Bristol: Kenseth has been one of the best drivers at Bristol in recent memory. In 28 starts, Kenseth has three wins, 11 top 5s and 18 top 10s with an average finish of 12.5. In last year’s race, Kenseth led 85 laps and was in contention for the win before Jeff Gordon blew his right front and collected him in the process. Kenseth made up for that missed opportunity in August by leading 149 laps and fending off Kasey Kahne for the victory. Expect Kenseth to be up front on Sunday.
8. Kyle Busch — -1
Like Harvick, Busch at one point appeared to be the guy that would go to victory lane on Sunday. After restarting 41st early in the race, Busch drove through the field and to the lead in 60 laps. But after leading 52 laps in the mid stages of the race, Busch’s car lost the handling in the final 100 miles and fell to 11th at finish. One could say it was a missed opportunity for Busch.
At Bristol: Busch has been phenomenal at Bristol. In 18 starts, Busch has five wins (tied for most amongst active drivers with Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch), eight top 5s and 12 top 10s with an average finish of 9.9. Expect Busch and the No.18 team to contend for the win.
9. Carl Edwards — +1
While he did struggle with the handling of his No.99 Ford for most of the day, running between 14th and 18th for about 300 miles, Edwards and crew used good pit strategy to get track position and steal a top 5 at race’s end. Edward’s second straight top 10 moved him to 6th in the standings as he heads to one of his best tracks.
At Bristol: “Concrete Carl” has solid success at Bristol in the past. In 19 starts, Edwards has two wins, four top 5s and seven top 10s with an average finish of 15.9. But Edwards has struggled at the half-mile lately as he’s posted no top 10s in the last four races there, with his best finish being 18th. Fantasy owners must be cautious with Edwards this weekend.
10. Denny Hamlin — -2
After an impressive Speedweeks, Hamlin has stumbled out of the gates in the last two races. Hamlin first finished 19th at Phoenix after being a non factor all race, and he then finished 12th at Las Vegas where he ran pretty much all race. Although he sits 8th in points, he and the entire JGR organization has to be a bit concerned with lack of performance by all three teams the past two weeks.
At Bristol: Hamlin has had moderated success at Bristol. In 16 starts, Hamlin has one win, four top 5s and seven top 10s with an average finish of 16.1. Hamlin led 117 laps in last year’s race and was in contention for the win before he tangled with Joey Logano and then ran out of fuel in the final laps and finished 23rd. What will we see from Hamlin this time around?
11. Kasey Kahne — +1
Although he does not have the speed of his three Hendrick teammates at the moment, Kahne is slowly climbing up the ladder. Kahne had one of the faster cars at the end of last weekend’s race and came home in 8th place for his first top 10 of the season. He also had the most quality passes in the race, which showed how well his car performed all day long. Expect Kahne to continue this trend.
At Bristol: Kahne has had good success at Bristol. In 20 starts, Kahne has one win, five top 5s and nine top 10s with an average finish of 17.4. However, no one was better at Bristol than Kahne last year. He led 109 laps and won the spring race and battled Kenseth for the win in the August event, eventually finishing in 2nd place. Expect Kahne to challenge once again.
12. Jamie McMurray — -1
The solid start to the season continued for McMurray last Sunday. After starting 7th in the race, McMurray ran in the top 15 all day and finished 15th, making it his third-straight top 15 to start the season. As a result, McMurray stands 11th in points through three races. Good start for a rebounding organization.
At Bristol: McMurray has had decent success at Bristol. In 22 starts, McMurray has no wins, three top 5s and nine top 10s with an average finish of 16.9. His worst finish in his last five races there is 19th and he has three top 10s in that span. Expect McMurray to hover there this weekend.
13. Ryan Newman — +3
Unexpectedly, Newman and the No.31 team have come out of the gates very solid. After a disappointing 22nd at Daytona, Newman and crew have rebounded with back-to-back 7th place finishes to move to 9th in points. Let’s see if they can keep up this pace.
At Bristol: Quietly, Newman has had decent success at Bristol. In 24 starts, Newman has no wins and only one top 5, but he has 13 top 10s with an average finish of 17.1. If he can stay out of trouble during the race, expect Newman to bring in a solid result by day’s end.
14. Paul Menard — NEW
Last Sunday, it appeared that Menard drove with extra motivation. The driver of the No.27 Menard’s Chevrolet had his wife on baby watch all weekend and with that distraction, Menard drove one of the best races of his cup career. After starting 21st, Menard worked his way, methodically, through the field and eventually passed Jimmie Johnson for the lead in the race’s second half. He appeared to have the best car in the final 100 miles, but lack of track position and pit strategy cost him a shot at his second career victory. Still, Menard brought home a 3rd place finish for his first top 5 since Kansas in October, 2012. Well done.
At Bristol: Like Newman, Menard has quietly had decent success at Bristol. In 14 starts, Menard has no wins, one top 5 and six top 10s with an average finish of 16.4. He is also currently on a streak of four-straight top 10s at the track. Don’t be surprised if he gets a fifth on Sunday.
15. Austin Dillon — +3
While a 16th place result is nothing to be excited about, Dillon has nothing to be ashamed of either. After starting 4th last Sunday, the Rookie of the Year candidate race in the top 20 all race long and brought his car home in one piece and on the lead lap. The result also made Dillon the highest finishing rookie in the race.
At Bristol: N/A
16. Brian Vickers — NEW
After a dismal first two races of season which saw finishes of 30th and 25th, Vickers finally got a decent outing on Sunday. Vickers qualified 9th and ran on the lead lap between 8th and 15th all race long, eventually bringing his car in 13th place. The finish moved Vickers to 20th in the standings, a big improvement from the the first two weeks.
At Bristol: Vickers’ career at Bristol has been feast or famine. In 18 starts, Vickers has no wins, three top 5s and four top 10s with an average finish of 20.3. But since joining MWR in 2012, Vickers is on a string of four-straight top 10 finishes at the track, with his worst being an 8th place result. Expect that continue this weekend for Vickers.
17. Clint Bowyer — -3
The slow start for Bowyer and MWR continued last Sunday at Las Vegas. After qualifying 3rd and running in the top 15 for most of the race, Bowyer cut down a tire shortly after the race’s final restart and was forced to pit under green-flag conditions. The bad luck cost Bowyer one lap and dropped him to 23rd at the finish. Let’s see if Bowyer can turn his luck around at “Thunder Valley.”
At Bristol: Bowyer has had decent success at Bristol in his career. In 16 starts, Bowyer has no wins, three top 5s and eight top 10s with an average finish of 16.1. But since also joining MWR in 2012, Bowyer has three top 10s in four races with his worst finish being 13th in last year’s August event when he ran out of gas on the final lap. With some decent luck, Bowyer should be able to pull out a solid finish this weekend.
18. Greg Biffle — -5
One of the biggest mysteries last Sunday was Biffle’s performance at Las Vegas. After starting 25th, Biffle struggled from the get-go. He nearly spun out several times and was never a factor for even a top 20 finish. A 22nd place finish for Biffle might have been too generous for where that car ran most of day.
At Bristol: Bristol has been a good track for Biffle. In 22 starts, Biffle has no wins, six top 5s and 12 top 10s with an average finish of 12th. This might be the place that help Biffle and crew get on track.
19. Casey Mears — -4
After two strong races to start the season, Mears and crew could not be found at Las Vegas. After starting 30th, Mears made very little progress throughout the day and finished three laps down in 28th. Will this become a trend for the single-car team? Time will tell.
At Bristol: Bristol has been a disaster for Casey. In 22 starts, Mears has no wins or top 5s with just one top 10. His average finish of 27.9 is the worst among the drivers in this week’s Power Rankings. Avoid Mears this weekend as trouble can’t seem to avoid him.
20. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. — -3
Like his teammate, Biffle, Stenhouse could not be found last Sunday. After starting 6th, Stenhouse fell like a rock and finished three laps down in 27th place. It appears that the Roush teams have not yet corrected the problems they had last year at the downforce tracks. If they don’t figure it out soon, it could be a long season for the organization.
At Bristol: Stenhouse has only two starts at Bristol which were both last year. He finished 16th and 18th, respectively. If he avoids the Bristol carnage, he might do better than that this weekend.
Notables: Dropped out — Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart.
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